CAISSA RESEARCH
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Theme comparison · brianhliou

Generated 2026-05-01 05:28 UTC · same classifier run across loss / win / draw outcomes
OutcomeGamesWith evalsDeviationsRate
loss 2710 975 970 0.99 / game
win 2614 401 369 0.92 / game
draw 305 41 40 0.98 / game
Δ(L−W) = loss% − win%. Positive means the theme is louder in losses (causally suspicious; worth studying). Negative means louder in wins (you make the mistake, but win anyway; probably not the leak). Themes ordered by Δ descending.
Theme
Loss
Win
Draw
Middlegame calculation
Middlegame drop ≥ 200cp without an obvious motif — suggests a calculation miss.
+4pp · roughly equal
159 (16%)
ply 63 · black · drop Δ9.51
. . r . . . . k
. . . . q . p .
p r . . p . . p
. p . . . . . Q
. . . . B . . .
. . . . . . . .
P P . . . P P P
. . . . R . K .
e5 → Qb4
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
3P6vy9Tj
44 (12%)
ply 15 · black · drop Δ6.09
r n . q k b . r
p p . . . p p p
. . p . p n . .
. . . . N b . .
. . B P . . . .
. . N . . . . .
P P P . . . P P
R . B Q . R K .
Nd5 → Bg6
Blackmar-Diemer Gambit Accepted: Ziegler Defense
ONLX4DyA
6 (15%)
ply 68 · white · drop Δ2.72
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . p . k p p .
. . . . p . . p
. . P q P . . P
. . . n N K P .
. . Q . . P . .
. . . . . . . .
Qb3 → Qa4
Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation
pt1Bd6q9
Opening preparation
First-15-ply position you've reached in losses without specific tactical motif.
+2pp · roughly equal
68 (7%)
ply 10 · white · drop Δ3.67
r . b . k b . r
p p . p p p p p
n . . . . n . .
. N p . . . . .
. . . P . B . .
. . . . P . . .
P q P . . P P P
R . . Q K B N R
Rb1 → a3
Indian Defense: Accelerated London System
i5FWR2Kn
18 (5%)
ply 6 · white · drop Δ8.84
r n . q k b . r
p p p . p p p p
. . . . . n . .
. . . p . . . .
. . . P . B b .
. . N . . . . .
P P P . P P P P
R . . Q K B N R
e3 → f3
Rapport-Jobava System
vQm7CFri
1 (2%)
ply 10 · white · drop Δ1.01
r . b q k b n r
p p p p . . p p
. . . . p . n .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . P P . .
. . . . . . . .
P P P . . . P P
R N B Q K B N R
e5 → h4
Mikenas Defense
OkDYnO0f
Misses a pin
Engine had a move that creates an absolute pin against the opponent's king.
+1pp · roughly equal
31 (3%)
ply 23 · black · drop Δ5.02
r . . . k b . r
p p . n p p . p
. . p q . p B .
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . P .
. . . . . N . P
P P P . . P . .
R . B Q R . K .
hxg6 → Qxd1
Caro-Kann Defense: Bronstein-Larsen Variation
YTJaLV4o
8 (2%)
ply 21 · black · drop Δ6.13
r n b q r . k .
p p . . . p b p
. . . p . . p .
. . p P . . B n
. . P . . . . .
. . N B . P . .
P P . . N . P P
R . . Q . R K .
f6 → Qxg5
King's Indian Defense: Normal Variation
dhhed0bZ
0 (0%)
Drops to mate
Walked into a forced mating sequence.
+1pp · roughly equal
7 (1%)
ply 19 · black · drop Δ20.00
r . b q r . k .
p p . n . p p .
. . p b p n . p
. . . p . . N .
. . P . . . P P
. P N . P . . .
P B Q P . P . .
R . . . K B . R
Nxg4 → Nf8
Réti Opening: Anglo-Slav Variation, Gurevich System
y79WkwOp
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Misses removing a defender
Engine had a capture that removed the defender of another enemy piece, leaving it hangable next move.
+0pp · roughly equal
31 (3%)
ply 22 · white · drop Δ6.21
. . k r . . . r
p p p . . p p .
. . n q p . . .
. . . p . . . p
. P . P n P b .
. . P . . N P .
P . . N B P . P
R . . Q . R K .
Qb3 → Nxe4
Queen's Pawn Game: London System
1gSzGjNN
10 (3%)
ply 11 · black · drop Δ4.42
r n . q k b . r
p p . . p p p p
. . p . . n . .
. . . . . . . .
. . . P . . b .
. . . . . . N .
P P P . B P P P
R . B Q K . N R
e6 → Bxe2
Caro-Kann Defense: Main Line
ySyoyAfg
0 (0%)
Hangs a piece
Moved a piece to a square where it can be captured for less than its value.
-0pp · roughly equal
84 (9%)
ply 76 · white · drop Δ9.75
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . k . .
R . p . . b p .
. . q p p . . p
. . . . . . . P
. . P . . . P .
. P . . Q P K .
. . . . . . . .
Ra7+ → b4
French Defense: Knight Variation
200diC1C
33 (9%)
ply 9 · black · drop Δ5.23
r n . q k b n r
p . p . . p p p
. p . . p . . .
. . . p . b . .
. . . P . . . N
. Q P . . . . .
P P . . P P P P
R N B . K B . R
Bg6 → Qxh4
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
CjktFR0N
4 (10%)
ply 7 · black · drop Δ2.68
r . b q k b . r
p p p p . p p p
. . n . . n . .
. . . . p . . .
. . . . P . . .
. . P . . P . .
P P . P . K P P
R N B Q . B N R
Nxe4+ → Bc5+
King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening
stKzR1mI
Misses a check
Engine had a checking move available; you played something else.
-0pp · roughly equal
13 (1%)
ply 28 · white · drop Δ3.84
. . r . k b . r
p p . . . p p p
. . . . p . . .
. . . p P . q .
. . . . . . . .
. . P Q . . P .
P P . N . P P .
R . . . . R K .
f4 → Qb5+
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
ZW9VgU93
6 (2%)
ply 50 · white · drop Δ3.52
. . . . . . k .
. b p . . p b p
p p . p . . p .
. . . P . . . n
. . P . . . . .
. . q B . N . P
P . . . Q P P B
. . . . . . K .
g4 → Qe8+
London System
7LPbgXej
0 (0%)
Misses a fork
Engine had a fork: a move attacking two pieces at once, at least one worth more than the mover.
-0pp · roughly equal
31 (3%)
ply 38 · white · drop Δ4.91
r . . r . . k .
b p . q n p p .
. . . N . n . p
. p . . p . . .
. . . . P . . .
B Q P P . N P .
. . . . . P K P
R . . . . R . .
Nxb5 → Qxf7+
Petrov's Defense
OAk5IplF
13 (4%)
ply 43 · black · drop Δ4.28
r r . . . . k .
. . . b n . b .
. q . . . . . p
n . N p . p . P
p . . P . P p .
. . N . B . . .
. P P Q . . P .
K R . . . B . R
Bc6 → Nb3+
Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation
R2FtvJn2
4 (10%)
ply 20 · white · drop Δ4.00
r n b q . r . k
p p . . b . p p
. . . . . n . .
. . p p . . N .
. . B . . . . .
. . N . . . . .
P P P . . P P P
R . B Q . R K .
Bd3 → Nxd5
Benoni Defense: Benoni-Indian Defense
oYfu2ZGe
Endgame technique
Position was an endgame (low material). Likely a conversion or technique miss.
-1pp · roughly equal
13 (1%)
ply 61 · black · drop Δ3.30
. . . . . . . .
p p . . . . p .
. . p . p p k .
. . . . . . . .
. . . P . P K .
. P P . . . . P
P . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
Kh6 → b6
Caro-Kann Defense: Tartakower Variation
D0wp61Oi
8 (2%)
ply 66 · white · drop Δ4.22
. . . . . . . .
p . . . . . . .
. . . . k p . p
. p p . . . p .
. . . . K . P .
. P P . . . . .
P . . . . P P .
. . . . . . . .
g3 → a3
Indian Defense: Accelerated London System
Op9AdKzB
5 (12%)
ply 62 · white · drop Δ1.28
. . . r . . . .
. p . P k p . .
p b . . . p . p
. . . . p B . .
. P . . . . . .
P . . . . K P .
. . . . . P . P
. . . R . . . .
Kg4 → Rc1
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
EaG5QSqF
Misses a discovered attack
Engine had a move that opened a sliding-piece line onto a previously-unattacked enemy piece (discovered attack).
-1pp · roughly equal
71 (7%)
ply 56 · white · drop Δ5.27
r . . . q . k .
p . . r . . p p
R p . . . p . .
. . . . p . . .
. . . . Q . . .
. . P . . . . P
. P . . . P P .
R . . . . . K .
Qc6 → Rxb6
Indian Defense: London System
c63sdvAB
32 (9%)
ply 41 · black · drop Δ5.06
. . . . r r k .
. . . . . p b .
. p n . . . p .
p . q p n . . p
. . . . . N . .
P P . P . . P .
. B P N R . K P
. R . . . Q . .
Qxc2 → Ng4
Zukertort Opening: Nimzo-Larsen Variation
J25CjsqD
5 (12%)
ply 30 · white · drop Δ3.78
r . b R . b k .
p . p . . p p p
. p . . . n . .
. . . . B . . .
. . P . P . . .
. . N . . . . .
P r . . B P P P
R . . . . . K .
Bf3 → Nd5
Indian Defense: Accelerated London System
Ze0kfpsS
Misses a capture
Engine recommended a capture; you played a quiet move instead.
-1pp · roughly equal
96 (10%)
ply 5 · black · drop Δ11.47
r n b q k . n r
p p p p p p b p
. . . . . . p B
. . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . .
. . N P . . . .
P P P . P P P P
R . . Q K B N R
d6 → Nxh6
Van Geet Opening
sStShrpx
42 (11%)
ply 30 · white · drop Δ4.07
r . . . . r k .
. . . . . . p p
b . n . p . . .
q . p . . . . .
. . . . p P . .
. . . . . N P .
P P . . B P . P
R . . Q . R K .
Nd2 → Bxa6
Indian Defense: Accelerated London System
jeHmRdq9
3 (8%)
ply 17 · black · drop Δ3.95
r . b q k . . r
p p p p . p p p
. . . . . . . .
n . . P . . . .
. b . . n . . .
. . . B . N . .
P P . N . P P P
R . B Q K . . R
Qe7 → Nxd2
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line
toaTPyPW
Middlegame positional drift
Middlegame drop under 200cp — small inaccuracies that compound into losses.
-4pp · roughly equal
366 (38%)
ply 46 · white · drop Δ1.98
. . r . r . k .
. b q n p p b .
p p . p . . . p
. . n P . . p .
P . P N . . P .
. P N . . . . P
. . . . . P B B
. Q . R R . K .
Qc2 → b4
London System
3XiJB7cN
155 (42%)
ply 38 · white · drop Δ1.98
. . . r . r k .
. p p . . p b .
p . . . b . p p
. . . . p . . .
P q . . P . . .
. . . . N N P .
. . Q . B P P .
. . . R . R K .
Qxc7 → Rb1
London System
sewqnJDh
12 (30%)
ply 28 · white · drop Δ1.72
r . . q . r k .
b p . . . p p p
p . p . p n . .
P . n . . . . .
. . N . P . b .
. . P . . N P .
. P Q . . P B P
R . B . R . K .
Bg5 → Nfe5
Caro-Kann Defense: Breyer Variation
5pWw3nCt
Caissa Research · M5 outcome comparison · same classifier, segmented by game outcome. Asymmetry is the finding